New analysis supported by TRUE data finds over €1.2 trillion in health damages in Europe from diesel car emissions
New analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) utilizes TRUE data to provide a comprehensive analysis of the air quality and health impacts of high-emitting diesel cars in Europe.
The report builds on past work from the TRUE Initiative on the impact of Euro 5 and 6 diesel cars. Various TRUE studies have shown the danger of these vehicles, whose high levels of real-world nitrogen oxides (NOx) are a substantial source of hazardous air pollution throughout Europe. In 2023, TRUE partner International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) published a report summarizing the number of vehicles likely to have defeat devices under a clarified definition issued by the Court of Justice of the European Union. The study found that between 77% and 100% of tests and vehicle averages indicated the likely use of a prohibited defeat device, showing that the issue of excess NOx is prevalent across all manufacturers.
CREA’s new analysis using TRUE data further illustrates the extent of the public health impact of these vehicles. The analysis used data from several TRUE remote sensing campaigns from 2017–2021, including measurements taken in Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. These campaigns have shown the benefit of improved certification testing in reducing real-world emissions among newer diesel cars; however, the high-emitting Euro 5 and 6 diesel cars are largely still operating on European roads today. As of 2019, the baseline year in the analysis, 40 million vehicles in the EU (including 7.9 million in France) and 6.9 million vehicles in the UK are considered likely to be using prohibited defeat devices. CREA’s report shows the significant past and future harm to public health caused by these vehicles.
According to the analysis, excess NOx emissions from vehicles likely using prohibited defeat devices are projected to cause over 200,000 premature deaths and EUR 1.2 trillion in health damages between 2009 and 2040. This includes direct healthcare expenditures such as hospital admissions and indirect health impacts such as reduced life expectancy.
There exists now an abundance of evidence on the issue of Euro 5 and 6 diesel cars and the significant harm they have caused for over a decade. However, it is not too late for regulators to address this issue. A commitment from EU member states and the UK to investigate and take corrective action where needed can prevent up to 81,000 premature deaths and EUR 430 billion in health damages. Swift action is needed to clean up the tens of millions of diesel cars that likely have prohibited defeat devices to minimize future health impacts.
